Fictitious Oscar Odds: Handicapping Hollywood’s Biggest Awards Show


We’re a few hours away from the Oscars, and I know you’re looking to spend the last wad of cash you received from helping that Nigerian prince escape prison. Here’s a few betting lines, which are definitely real, and not made up by me on a lazy Sunday afternoon, you can spend your extra cash on.

1 million to 1: The Oscar telecast clocks in under three hours.

Lol, are you fucking kidding me? The last time it ran under three hours was back in 1973 when The Godfather bitch slapped cinema. Now, with advertising dollars more significant than ever, this son of a bitch isn’t running any less than three hours and fifteen minutes.

1,000 to 1: Ben Affleck claims Good Will Hunting as his worst film.

For many, many years Affleck was Matt Damon’s shadow. Seth MacFarlane, this year’s Oscar host, even went as far to make a joke on Family Guy that envisioned Affleck as a leech who latched onto Matt Damon’s star. Well, Affleck is on pace to receive the Best Picture Oscar, finally etching himself as a singular talent. He will finally have the stage to troll Gigli haters.

500 to 1: Meryl Streep will receive a surprise nomination.

Meryl Streep is Hollywood’s sweetheart. Not only is she an unbelievable talent, but she’s wholly likeable…and maybe even boneable to some men. I plead the fifth on that one. Nonetheless, she is so beloved to the point that she could bludgeon Anne Hathaway to death and no one would bat an eyelash. Hell, we’d probably give her “Human of the Year”. Expect her to get a lot of camera love, if not an impromptu nomination and win because she’s Meryl. After all, that’s what happened last year! (enter rim shot here)

250 to 1: Joaquin Phoenix will act like a normal, socially adjusted human being.

It’s amazing to me that an actor as great as Phoenix can’t deliver a “performance” while attending a social event. Fidgety and reclusive, Phoenix struggles when the spotlight burns brightly on him. In many ways I can’t blame him, especially when it comes to the rather shallow existence of the Oscars, but Phoenix in the very least can pretend as if he’s interested versus alienating the people around him. Either way, expect Phoenix to behave like a meth tweaker that believes aliens want to scramble his brains.

150 to 1: Austrian director Michael Haneke will fail to smile.

Michael Haneke would probably only laugh at a rape joke. The dude’s films are so grimly serious and devoid of human attachment that I’m starting to think he’s a sociopath incapable of enjoying himself. I imagine MacFarlane will deliver a joke about Haneke’s reserved emotions, and then I imagine Haneke will smother him on the stage with a pillow.

50 to 1: A cutaway shot will show a grumpy, tired Tommy Lee Jones.

10 to 1: A drunken Rex Reed will mistake Adele for Melissa McCarthy, throws prunes at TV.

Rex Reed, a film critic for The New York Observer, is an insufferable prick. Recently he has reached the level of Armond White when it comes to the art of trolling. With his recent defamatory comments about Melissa McCarthy drumming up a great deal of heat, and indirect free publicity for himself, I imagine he’ll gallantly drink himself into a stupor and harass Adele for her weight, forgetting once again that his voice can’t project through a TV.

10 to 3: I’ll be butthurt about something.

As much as I like to pretend that I don’t care about who the Academy awards an Oscar to, I admittedly get angry when a category or two goes the wrong way. Case and point: last year when the Academy erroneously gave the Best Cinematography award to Hugo instead of The Tree of Life. Thankfully, my walls can’t fight back, so my anger typically goes unpunished. Nonetheless, if you check me out on twitter (@mmonty8six), I’ll probably be bitching about something.

4 to 1: The best presenters will be comedians or TV stars.

What’s with the stiffness of film actors during award ceremonies? Maybe there’s a level of credibility they want to maintain in front of their “peers”, but most of them handle the punch lines written for them as well as a lubed up Michael J Fox handles a wet bar of soap. Yet, veteran TV folks (e.g. Amy Poehler and Tina Fey) and comedians (Will Ferrell and Steve Martin) dominate while on stage. Of course there are exceptions to the rule (RDJ), but TV vets and comedians make the show endurable.

5 to 3: Daniel Day-Lewis will graciously thank everyone for his awesomeness.

Daniel Day-Lewis is the fucking man, and when he wins he seemingly shifts his glory onto the people around him. I don’t think I’ve seen a speech from Daniel Day-Lewis where he refrained from poetically musing about the work of his competition. The man is a gracious winner that eats a healthy amount of humble pie.

Even Money: Seth MacFarlane will make use of a non-sequitur, cutaway joke.

Seth MacFarlane, despite his ability to show restraint in Ted, practically lives off these jokes. The question is: will anyone laugh at a fight involving him and a man in a chicken costume lasting ten minutes while the Star Wars cantina theme plays in the background?

Even Money: Technical award winners will get ten seconds for their speeches, while Anne Hathaway gets an hour.

What’s that sound editor? You worked hard in transforming a film’s audible quality and resonance? Fuck you. Did you cry on-screen? I didn’t think so! People love tears and celebrity, so that little dweeb you teased in high school for being interested in dumb topics like “science” and creating “special effects”, you know, the one who just won an Oscar for a technical achievement, doesn’t deserve our  time or attention. Thankfully, the show’s producers won’t give it to them. Unless of course these technical nerds get shoved into a locker by Brad Pitt or something.

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